Interest Rates and Inflation

10/16/17 | Casey Fleming | It’s been a while since I wrote about interest rates and inflation.  In the last six weeks rates have crept up about 0.250%.  Let’s talk about what happened. As you may recall, stocks and interest rates tend to move together most of the time.  This is because as stock prices...

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady in Mid-July

7/15/2017 | Casey Fleming |  Last week I predicted that underlying conditions (think wholesale interest rates) would probably improve during the week just ended, but that economic reports and announcements by Fed members carried too much risk for mortgage rates to improve much in mid-July.  I noted that we would probably see lock opportunities on...

Mortgage Rates Rise Before the Thunder Moon

7/8/2017 | Casey Fleming  Last week I predicted that rates would remain generally stable for the rest of the week, barring unexpected news.  Well, we had some unexpected news leading into the week of the Thunder Moon. The Thunder Moon is the full moon in July when thunderstorms are common in the United States.  It...

The Dust Settles after the Fed Meeting

6/15/2017 } Casey Fleming.  As expected, the FOMC raised the short-term rates by 0.25% on Wednesday at the Fed meeting.  More important was the statement released later that day, which covered two very important topics: future rate increases, and “normalization” of its balance sheet, meaning tapering off of reinvestment in mortgage-backed securities or even selling...

Anticipation: Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates?

6/13/2017 | Casey Fleming Last week I wrote that we were almost certainly going to see the Feds raise short-term rates when they meet this week on Wednesday, June 14th. I predicted that mortgage rates would rise starting Thursday in anticipation of what the market would do in response to whatever action the Feds took. If...

Interest Rates at 2017 Lows

6/5/2017 | Casey Fleming In April I wrote that interest rates had slid down to their lowest point in 2017. After a short, small, steady move up they have slowly settled back down to April levels. What’s happening? What drives interest rates? As a reminder, long-term trends in interest rates tend to move according to...

Interest Rates Settle at 2017 Lows

4/8/2017 | Casey Fleming Last week I wrote that barring something surprising in the minutes of the Fed meeting from last month, rates would probably be stable this week.  As it turns out, something surprising was in the minutes, but the markets took it in stride and rates pretty much flatlined. Let’s compare interest rates...

The Feds Mentioned the Elephant in the Room

4/7/2017 | Casey Fleming As I wrote last weekend the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (The Feds as they are known in the hood) was going to release the minutes of its March 14th meeting yesterday, April 6th, and the contents could move the market.  As it turns out, there was...

Lower Mortgage Rates Last Week

4/2/2017 | Casey Fleming Last week I wrote that due to a thin week of economic reports there was not much likely to happen the week of March 27th to drive mortgage rates one way or another.  I also noted that this coming week (April 3rd) there were more economic reports on tap, and some...

Interest Rates Behaved This Week

Interest rates pretty much flatlined this week.  As I wrote last week it was a busy week for economic reports, but they pretty much all came in very close to where the consensus of a survey of economists thought they would.  Most showed a very slight surprise to the upside, which is not good for...